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Violent Crime Trends in Lake Winnebago, Missouri: A Study of Low Crime Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lake Winnebago, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. This small city of 3,492 residents as of 2022 has experienced significant population growth over the past decade, increasing by 32.6% from 2,634 in 2010. Despite this growth, the total number of violent crimes has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0 and 3 incidents per year from 2010 to 2020.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2020. This stability is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has effectively decreased due to the growing population, and the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This trend suggests a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. In 2017, there was one reported rape, representing 0.05% of the state's total. By 2020, this number increased to two incidents, accounting for 0.1% of the state's rapes. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.33 in 2017 to 0.6 in 2020. While any increase is concerning, the small numbers make it difficult to establish a definitive trend.
Robbery rates have remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period. This stability, even as the population grew, indicates that robbery has not been a significant issue for the city. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has effectively decreased due to population growth, and the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were two reported cases, representing 0.01% of the state's total. This dropped to zero in subsequent years before rising to one incident in 2020, again accounting for 0.01% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.76 in 2010 to 0.3 in 2020, indicating a relative improvement when considering population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the overall number of violent crimes. As the population increased from 2,634 in 2010 to 3,349 in 2020, the total violent crimes rose from 2 to 3. However, the crime rate per capita has actually decreased due to the faster population growth.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 97% in 2017 to 94% in 2022. This stability in demographic composition suggests that changes in racial distribution have not been a significant factor in violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a slight increase in total violent crimes, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents per year. However, given the continued population growth, the per capita crime rate is likely to remain low or potentially decrease further.
In summary, Lake Winnebago has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate despite significant population growth. The most notable trends include the consistent absence of murders and robberies, a slight increase in rape incidents, and fluctuating but low levels of aggravated assault. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and stable demographic composition, suggest that Lake Winnebago has managed to maintain its safety and security even as it expands.
