Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Lake Jackson, Texas: Population Growth Outpaced by Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lake Jackson, located in Texas, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a significant increase of 40.8% from 49 incidents in 2010 to 69 in 2022. During this same period, the population grew by 12.7%, from 30,742 to 34,648 residents, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero or one incident. The highest number of murders was recorded in 2019 and 2020, with two cases each year. This translates to a rate of about 0.06 murders per 1,000 people in 2022, up from 0.03 per 1,000 in 2010. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.21% in 2010 and dropping to 0.06% in 2022. These figures suggest that while murders remain infrequent, they have slightly increased relative to the city's population growth.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. The number of reported rapes increased from 7 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, a 157% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases also increased from 0.12% to 0.16% over this period. This significant increase in rape cases, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of the population, indicates a growing concern for public safety.
Robbery trends have been more volatile but show an overall decrease. The number of robberies dropped from 13 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 61.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.42 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies decreased slightly from 0.05% to 0.03%. This downward trend in robberies is a positive development for the community's safety.
Aggravated assaults have seen a substantial increase. The number of incidents rose from 27 in 2010 to 45 in 2022, a 66.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.88 in 2010 to 1.30 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults grew from 0.05% to 0.06%. This uptick in aggravated assaults is concerning and contributes significantly to the overall rise in violent crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density rose from 1,557 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,755 in 2022, violent crime rates also increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the rising Hispanic population (from 22% in 2013 to 30% in 2022) and the overall increase in violent crime, though this does not imply causation and may be related to other socioeconomic factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see around 95-100 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continuation of the observed increase in aggravated assaults and rapes, while murders and robberies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Lake Jackson has experienced a concerning rise in violent crime, particularly in rapes and aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While robberies have decreased, the overall trend shows an increase in violent crime that outpaces population growth. The correlations with population density and demographic changes suggest complex socioeconomic factors at play. As the city continues to grow, addressing these rising crime rates will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
