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Violent Crime Trends in Kinston, Alabama: A Small Town's Fluctuating Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Kinston, Alabama, is a small community that has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with a notable increase from 2 incidents in 2017 to 8 in 2021, followed by a decrease to 3 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase in violent crimes from 2010 to 2022. During the same period, the population grew from 1,564 in 2010 to 1,646 in 2022, a 5.2% increase.
Examining murder trends, Kinston has consistently reported zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0 throughout this period, and the percentage of state crime for murder has also consistently been 0%.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. There was one reported case in 2011 and another in 2014, representing 0.11% and 0.08% of the state's total rapes respectively. In other years, including 2022, no rapes were reported. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.61 in 2011 and 0.63 in 2014, corresponding to the years with reported incidents. This inconsistent pattern makes it challenging to establish a clear trend.
Robbery trends in Kinston have been minimal. Only two robberies were reported during the analyzed period: one in 2010 (0.03% of state robberies) and another in 2017 (0.04% of state robberies). The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.64 in 2010 and 0.66 in 2017. In recent years, including 2021 and 2022, no robberies were reported, indicating a potential improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, with a significant spike in 2021 when 8 cases were reported, representing 0.09% of the state's aggravated assaults. This spike resulted in a rate of 4.79 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people in 2021. However, by 2022, the number decreased to 3 incidents (0.03% of state total), or 1.82 per 1,000 people. Despite these fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary concern in the city's violent crime landscape.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 319 per square mile in 2010 to 336 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $555 in 2013 to $701 in 2022, there was a slight overall increase in violent crime incidents, though this relationship is not consistently strong throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the fluctuating pattern observed in recent years. The model suggests that aggravated assaults may stabilize around 3-5 incidents per year, while other forms of violent crime are likely to remain at very low levels or zero. However, given the small population size, even minor changes in incident numbers can result in significant percentage changes.
In summary, Kinston has experienced variable violent crime rates, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and low rates of rape and robbery are positive aspects of the city's safety profile. The relationship between population growth, increased population density, and violent crime rates suggests a need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies as the town continues to develop.
