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Violent Crime Trends in Kimberly, Alabama: A Study of Stability and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Kimberly, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population that has grown from 3,698 in 2010 to 4,583 in 2022, representing a 23.9% increase, the city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates. The total number of violent crimes has varied over the years, with notable changes from 0 in 2010 to a peak of 7 in 2017 and 2018, before settling at 6 in 2022.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has therefore remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents have shown some variability. The city reported no rapes from 2010 to 2016, then saw an increase to 1 case in 2017 (0.26 per 1,000 people), peaking at 3 cases in 2018 (0.78 per 1,000 people). This represented 0.28% of the state's rape cases in 2018. However, by 2020 and through 2022, rape cases returned to zero. This fluctuation suggests a temporary spike that was subsequently addressed.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only one robbery was reported in 2017, representing 0.04% of the state's robberies that year. This translates to a rate of 0.26 robberies per 1,000 people in 2017. For all other years in the dataset, including 2022, no robberies were reported, indicating that robbery is not a persistent issue in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. From 2010 to 2015, there were either no or very few cases reported. However, there was a significant increase starting in 2016, with 2 cases (0.53 per 1,000 people), rising to 5 cases in 2017 (1.29 per 1,000 people), and peaking at 6 cases in 2020 and 2022 (1.46 and 1.31 per 1,000 people respectively). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases rose from 0.01% in 2011 to 1.74% in 2020, before decreasing to 0.05% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in population density and the rise in aggravated assaults. As the population density increased from 591 per square mile in 2010 to 732 in 2022, the number of aggravated assaults also generally increased. However, it's important to note that this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by the drop to zero assaults in 2021 despite continued population growth.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, if current trends continue. The model suggests there could be 7-8 aggravated assaults annually, assuming population growth remains consistent.
In summary, Kimberly has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate despite its population growth. The most significant concern has been the rise in aggravated assaults, which peaked in recent years but showed signs of stabilizing. The city has effectively managed to keep other forms of violent crime, such as murder and robbery, at minimal levels. As the community continues to grow, maintaining focus on preventing aggravated assaults while preserving the low rates of other violent crimes will be crucial for ensuring public safety.
