Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only one robbery was reported in 2014, with all other years from 2010 to 2022 recording zero incidents. This single robbery in 2014 represented 0.58% of the state's robberies for that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has remained at 0 for all years except 2014, when it briefly rose to 0.31 per 1,000 residents. This indicates that robbery is an extremely rare occurrence in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated, with a high of 13 cases in both 2010 and 2012, and a low of 3 cases in 2013 and 2017. In 2022, there were 8 aggravated assaults, representing a rate of 2.16 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has varied, reaching a peak of 0.86% in 2011 and standing at 0.34% in 2022. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its prevalence has generally decreased over time relative to the state's statistics.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,230 per square mile in 2010 to 1,156 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Hispanic residents and violent crime rates, with both showing slight increases in some years, though this correlation is not consistent throughout the period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and current trends, we can anticipate that the murder rate is likely to remain at zero, given the consistent history. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases per year. Robbery is expected to remain rare, with most years likely seeing zero incidents. Aggravated assault cases are predicted to stabilize around 8-10 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue.

In summary, Ketchum has maintained a relatively low and decreasing violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's small population means that even a few incidents can significantly impact crime rates. The consistent absence of murders, rare occurrences of robberies, and fluctuating but generally low numbers of rapes and aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that, while not crime-free, has managed to maintain a relatively safe environment for its residents and visitors.