Robbery rates in Kalispell have remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 7 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.25 to 0.14. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated, peaking at 7.61% in 2010 and dropping to 2.16% in 2022, suggesting a relative improvement compared to state trends.

Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase, rising by 111.5% from 52 cases in 2010 to 110 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 1.83 to 3.12. Despite this increase, the city's percentage of state aggravated assaults has remained relatively stable, moving from 6.21% in 2010 to 4.64% in 2022, indicating that this trend may be part of a broader state-wide increase.

A strong correlation exists between population growth and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. As the population density increased from 2,261 per square mile in 2010 to 2,811 in 2022, violent crime rates have generally trended upward. The city's racial composition has remained predominantly white, with only minor changes, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Kalispell may see its total violent crimes increase to approximately 180-200 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue as the primary driver of this increase, potentially reaching 140-150 cases per year.

In summary, Kalispell has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, alongside substantial population growth. While murder and robbery rates have remained relatively low, the city has seen concerning increases in rape and aggravated assault incidents. These trends, coupled with the city's growing share of state crime in certain categories, underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies as Kalispell continues to expand.