Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Jourdanton, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jourdanton, located in Texas, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 0 incidents in 2018 to 14 in 2022, representing a substantial rise. During this same period, the population grew from 4,547 in 2010 to 5,197 in 2022, an increase of approximately 14.3%.
Regarding murder trends, the city maintained a consistently low rate until 2021, when it recorded its first and only murder case. This single incident resulted in a murder rate of 0.18 per 1,000 residents in 2021, compared to zero in all other years. The percentage of state murder crimes attributable to the city jumped to 0.06% in 2021, a significant increase from its usual 0% contribution. This isolated event, while concerning, does not necessarily indicate a broader trend given the city's history of no murders in other years.
Rape incidents in the city have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022. This statistic suggests either an absence of reported cases or potential underreporting. The consistent zero figures mean that the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's rape statistics throughout the observed period.
Robbery trends in Jourdanton have been minimal. The city reported one robbery incident in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and another single incident in 2017. In all other years, including 2022, no robberies were reported. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.22 in 2010 and has since decreased to 0 by 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained at or very close to 0% throughout the period.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated significantly, from a low of 0 in 2018 to a high of 29 in 2021. In 2022, there were 14 reported cases. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, reaching its peak of 5.22 per 1,000 in 2021 before decreasing to 2.69 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has generally been low but saw a notable increase to 0.04% in 2021 before dropping to 0.02% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population growth and the number of aggravated assaults, particularly evident in the spike of cases in 2021 when the population was also at its highest. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse relationship between the percentage of Hispanic residents and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population decreased from 59% in 2017 to 35% in 2022, violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults, showed an upward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in aggravated assault cases, assuming population growth continues at a similar rate. The city may expect to see between 15-20 aggravated assault cases annually by 2029 if current trends persist. Other violent crimes are likely to remain low, with possible sporadic incidents of robbery or isolated severe crimes.
In summary, Jourdanton has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates, primarily driven by changes in aggravated assault incidents. The most significant finding is the sharp increase in violent crimes in 2021, followed by a partial decrease in 2022. While the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low compared to larger urban areas, the recent uptick warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders. The city's changing demographic composition, particularly the decreasing Hispanic population percentage, coincides with these crime trends and may be an area for further sociological study.
