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Violent Crime Trends in Jonesburg, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jonesburg, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2019, the city experienced a notable decrease in total violent crimes, from 5 incidents in 2011 to 0 in 2019, representing a 100% reduction. This significant drop in violent crime occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 1,704 in 2011 to 1,391 in 2019, a 18.4% decrease.
The murder rate in Jonesburg has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2011 to 2019. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the fluctuations in population. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murders. This absence of murders contributes positively to the city's overall safety profile.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. In 2012, there were 2 reported rapes, accounting for 0.17% of the state's total. This equated to a rate of 1.09 rapes per 1,000 people. However, in most other years, including 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019, there were no reported rapes. The only other year with a reported rape was 2015 and 2017, with 1 incident each, representing 0.05% of the state's total and a rate of 0.61 per 1,000 people. This fluctuation suggests that while rape is not a persistent problem, isolated incidents do occur.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. There were only two years with reported robberies: 2011 and 2012, each with 1 incident, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.59 robberies per 1,000 people in 2011 and 0.54 in 2012. From 2013 to 2019, no robberies were reported, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2011, there were 4 incidents (0.03% of the state's total), equating to 2.35 per 1,000 people. The number fluctuated in subsequent years: 3 incidents in 2013 and 2014 (0.02% of state total, 1.71 per 1,000 people), 1 incident in 2015, 2017, and 2018 (0.01% of state total, rates of 0.61, 0.72, and 0.71 per 1,000 people respectively), and no incidents in 2016 and 2019. This overall declining trend in aggravated assaults is encouraging for public safety.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and the reduction in violent crimes. As the population density decreased from 1,109 per square mile in 2011 to 906 per square mile in 2019, the total number of violent crimes also decreased. Additionally, the racial composition of the city, which has remained predominantly white (91-98% during the observed period), appears to have a stable relationship with the low crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that Jonesburg will likely maintain its low violent crime rates over the next five years, extending to 2029. The city may continue to see occasional isolated incidents, particularly in categories like aggravated assault, but the overall trend suggests these will remain infrequent.
In conclusion, Jonesburg has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing violent crimes over the observed period. The consistent absence of murders, the infrequent occurrence of rapes and robberies, and the declining trend in aggravated assaults all contribute to a safer community environment. These trends, coupled with the city's demographic stability, suggest that Jonesburg is likely to maintain its low crime profile in the coming years, positioning it as a relatively safe small city in Missouri.
