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Violent Crime Trends in Johnstown, NY: A Decade of Resilience Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Johnstown, New York, a small city with a rich history, has experienced notable shifts in its violent crime patterns over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes in the city fluctuated, starting at 14 in 2010, dropping to a low of 4 in 2015, and then rising again to 10 in 2020, representing a 28.57% decrease overall. During this same period, the population declined from 8,656 in 2010 to 8,220.5 in 2020, a 5% decrease.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, Johnstown has maintained a remarkably consistent record of zero incidents from 2010 to 2020. This statistic remains stable despite the population decline, resulting in a consistent rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's total for this crime category has consistently been 0%, indicating that Johnstown has not impacted state-level murder statistics during this period.
Rape incidents in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, representing 0.22% of the state's total. The rate then dropped to zero in 2011 and 2012. Data for 2013 to 2015 is unavailable. By 2019, rape incidents peaked at 8 cases, accounting for 0.21% of the state's total, before decreasing to 4 cases in 2020 (0.13% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.46 in 2010 to 0.98 in 2019, then decreased to 0.49 in 2020, indicating a volatile trend that doesn't directly correlate with population changes.
Robbery trends in the city have been inconsistent. From 2 cases in 2010 (0.01% of state total), incidents rose to 4 in 2012-2014 (0.02% of state total), then dropped to zero in 2015. By 2020, there was 1 reported robbery (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 0.23 in 2010 to a peak of 0.47 in 2013-2014, before declining to 0.12 in 2020. This trend suggests an overall decrease in robberies relative to the population over the decade.
Aggravated assault cases in Johnstown have shown a general declining trend. From 8 cases in 2010 (0.02% of state total), incidents peaked at 9 in 2013 (0.02% of state total), before dropping to 5 in 2020 (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated, from 0.92 in 2010 to 1.05 in 2013, ending at 0.61 in 2020. This represents a 37.5% decrease in aggravated assaults over the decade, outpacing the population decline.
An examination of correlations reveals a notable relationship between violent crime trends and racial distribution in the city. As the white population percentage decreased from 93% in 2013 to 91% in 2020, there was a corresponding increase in diversity. This demographic shift coincided with fluctuations in violent crime rates, suggesting a potential correlation between changing community demographics and crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the general downward trend observed in most violent crime categories over the past decade, coupled with the city's gradual population decline and increasing diversity.
In summary, Johnstown has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2020. While maintaining a zero-murder rate, the city has seen fluctuations in rape and robbery incidents, and a general decline in aggravated assaults. These trends, occurring against a backdrop of gradual population decline and increasing diversity, paint a picture of a changing urban environment. The projected stabilization of crime rates suggests that Johnstown may be moving towards a period of relative consistency in its public safety profile.
