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Violent Crime Trends in Jasper, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jasper, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 1,781 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city witnessed significant changes in its crime landscape, with total violent crimes peaking at 8 incidents in 2013 and dropping to just 1 incident in 2019, representing an 87.5% decrease. This trend occurred alongside a 9.4% population decrease, from 1,902 in 2010 to 1,723 in 2019.
Murder trends in Jasper have remained consistently low, with no reported cases from 2010 to 2019. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero throughout this period, indicating a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides. The percentage of state crime for murder has also stayed at 0%, suggesting that Jasper has not contributed to Missouri's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported rapes from 2010 to 2013. In 2014 and 2015, one rape was reported each year, representing 0.06% and 0.05% of the state's total rapes, respectively. Another rape was reported in 2016. However, from 2017 to 2019, there were no reported rapes. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.65 in 2014 when the population was at its lowest (1,529), and decreased to 0.60 in 2015 as the population increased to 1,670. This indicates that while rape incidents were rare, they had a more significant impact on the per capita rate during years of lower population.
Robbery trends in Jasper have been minimal. The only reported robberies occurred in 2013, with two incidents, representing 0.04% of the state's total robberies that year. This translates to a rate of 1.18 robberies per 1,000 people in 2013. For all other years from 2010 to 2019, there were no reported robberies, maintaining a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics and a rate of 0 per 1,000 people. This suggests that robbery is not a persistent issue in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Jasper. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, peaking at 6 incidents in 2013 (3.55 per 1,000 people) and dropping to 1 incident in 2019 (0.58 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics ranged from 0% to 0.04%, with the highest percentage in 2013 and 2014. The trend shows a general decrease in aggravated assaults over time, with some year-to-year variations.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,716 per square mile in 2010 to 1,554 per square mile in 2019, violent crime rates initially increased but then showed an overall declining trend. The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with the percentage increasing from 89% in 2013 to 91% in 2019. This stability in racial demographics doesn't show a strong correlation with the fluctuations in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Jasper may continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The trend suggests that aggravated assaults could potentially decrease further, possibly averaging 0-1 incidents per year. Rape and robbery incidents are likely to remain rare or non-existent if current trends persist.
In conclusion, Jasper has demonstrated a generally improving trend in violent crime rates over the past decade, despite some fluctuations. The most significant discovery is the consistent absence of murders and the overall low incidence of violent crimes, particularly in recent years. The city's violent crime rates have shown resilience against population changes, with a tendency towards decreased crime even as the population stabilized. These findings suggest that Jasper has maintained a relatively safe environment for its residents, with violent crime rates that are low and improving over time.
