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Violent Crime Trends in Jacksonville, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations and Low Murder Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jacksonville, Illinois has witnessed significant changes in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022, coinciding with a notable population decline. The total number of violent crimes decreased by 44%, from 75 incidents in 2010 to 42 in 2022, while the city's population dropped by 10.2%, from 20,683 to 18,572 residents. This reduction in violent crime occurred despite the challenges posed by a shrinking population base.
Murder rates in Jacksonville have remained consistently low, with most years recording zero incidents. Single murder cases were reported in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2019, with the murder rate peaking at 0.049 per 1,000 residents in 2014 and 2015. The city's contribution to state murders has been minimal, reaching a maximum of 0.17% in 2013 and 2014, indicating that murder remains an infrequent occurrence in Jacksonville.
Rape cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. Reported rapes increased from 5 in 2012 to 13 in 2019, before slightly decreasing to 11 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.24 in 2012 to 0.66 in 2019, settling at 0.59 in 2022. While rape incidents have increased relative to the city's population, Jacksonville's contribution to state rape cases remains small, peaking at 0.86% in 2011 and standing at 0.31% in 2022.
Robbery trends in Jacksonville show a concerning increase in recent years. After declining from 5 incidents in 2010 to 1 in 2020, robberies surged to 10 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.05 in 2020 to 0.54 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies also rose dramatically from 0.01% in 2020 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a need for focused attention on robbery prevention strategies.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in Jacksonville, has shown a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 56 in 2010 to 21 in 2022, with the rate per 1,000 residents falling from 2.71 to 1.13. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults has generally decreased, from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022. This reduction in aggravated assaults is a positive development for community safety.
A notable correlation exists between population density and violent crime rates in Jacksonville. As the population density decreased from 1,958 per square mile in 2010 to 1,758 in 2022, there was a corresponding decline in overall violent crime incidents. This suggests that the lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for violent encounters.
Predictive models forecast a continuation of the overall downward trend in violent crimes for the next five years, up to 2029. However, the recent spike in robberies warrants careful monitoring. Projections suggest that if current trends persist, Jacksonville might see approximately 35-40 violent crimes annually by 2029, with potential fluctuations in specific crime categories.
In summary, Jacksonville has made significant progress in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults. The consistent low murder rate and the overall decrease in violent incidents are positive indicators for community safety. However, the recent uptick in robberies highlights the need for targeted interventions. As the city continues to experience population decline, maintaining and enhancing crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustaining these positive trends and addressing emerging challenges in the coming years.
