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Violent Crime Trends in Jackson, Kentucky: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Jackson, Kentucky, is a small urban center with a population of 8,175 as of 2022, covering an area of 2.51 square miles. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and violent crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes ranged from 0 to 3 incidents per year, with no clear consistent trend. During this same period, the population grew by approximately 3.4%, from 7,908 in 2010 to 8,175 in 2022.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially considering the slight population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has therefore also remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero cases. However, there were two reported rapes in 2011 and again in 2015, representing 0.23% and 0.22% of the state's total rape cases in those years, respectively. In 2018, there was one reported rape, accounting for 0.12% of the state's cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at approximately 0.26 in 2011 and 2015, dropping to about 0.13 in 2018, with zero cases in other years.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrences, with single incidents reported in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2020. These incidents represented between 0.03% and 0.1% of the state's total robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to approximately 0.13, with the highest rate occurring in 2013 when the population was around 8,008.
Aggravated assault has been the most frequent violent crime in the city, with incidents reported in 8 out of the 13 years from 2010 to 2022. The number of aggravated assaults ranged from 0 to 3 per year, with the highest count of 3 occurring in 2022. This represented 0.18% of the state's aggravated assaults for that year. The rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people fluctuated, reaching its peak of approximately 0.37 in 2022.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The city's population density increased from 3,152 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,259 in 2022. This gradual increase coincides with the slight uptick in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, towards the end of the observed period. However, it's important to note that the overall numbers remain low, and the correlation is not strong enough to suggest a definitive causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent pattern. Based on the slight increase in aggravated assaults observed in the last few years, we might expect to see a modest upward trend in this category, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents per year by 2029. However, given the city's small size and the low overall crime numbers, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously.
In summary, Jackson has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent form of violent crime. The city has experienced no murders, sporadic incidents of rape and robbery, and a slight increase in aggravated assaults in recent years. While there appears to be a weak correlation between population density and violent crime rates, the overall numbers remain low. As the city continues to grow, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in preserving the generally safe environment that Jackson has demonstrated over the years.
