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Violent Crime Trends in Horseshoe Bay, Texas: A Decade of Declining Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Horseshoe Bay, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population that grew from 4,039 in 2010 to 4,875 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. The total number of violent crimes varied from a high of 14 in 2017 to a low of 3 in 2011 and 2012, showing no consistent trend over the period.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably stable, with zero reported murders throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistency is notable, especially considering the population growth of about 20.7% during this time. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at zero, and the city has consistently contributed 0% to the state's total murders.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some fluctuation but remain relatively low. The number of reported rapes ranged from zero to a maximum of three, with the highest number recorded in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.62 in 2022, up from 0 in several previous years. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has varied, reaching a high of 0.03% in 2010 and 2022, indicating a slight increase in the city's share of state rape cases over time.
Robbery trends in Horseshoe Bay have been minimal. Most years reported zero robberies, with only two years showing any robbery incidents: one case each in 2015 and 2018. This translates to a robbery rate that has remained at or very close to zero per 1,000 people throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies has consistently been 0%, reflecting the rarity of this crime in the area.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated from a low of 2 in 2011 to a high of 13 in 2017. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people peaked at 3.1 in 2017 and was at its lowest at 0.46 in 2011. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has generally remained low, ranging from 0% to 0.02%, with the highest percentage occurring in several years including 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the number of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not strong or consistent enough to draw definitive conclusions. The city's racial composition has remained predominantly white throughout the period, with a slight increase in Hispanic population from 3% in 2013 to 10% in 2022, but this demographic shift does not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high accuracy due to the fluctuations and low numbers involved. However, if current trends continue, we might expect the total number of violent crimes to remain relatively stable, potentially ranging between 5 to 10 incidents annually by 2029. The city is likely to continue experiencing very low rates of murder and robbery, with possible slight increases in rape and aggravated assault cases in line with population growth.
In summary, Horseshoe Bay has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite its population growth. The most significant violent crime concern remains aggravated assault, while other categories of violent crime occur infrequently. The city's contribution to state-wide violent crime statistics remains minimal across all categories. These trends suggest that Horseshoe Bay continues to be a relatively safe community with crime rates that have not significantly escalated in proportion to its population growth.
