Robbery trends in Holden have been sporadic but generally low. The city experienced 1 robbery in 2010, 2 in 2011, and 1 in 2018, with no reported robberies in other years. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.43 in 2011 and was 0.24 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases was highest in 2011 at 0.03%, dropping to 0% in most other years. This suggests that while robbery is not a persistent problem, occasional incidents do occur.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults peaked at 15 in 2012, with a rate of 3.21 per 1,000 people. Since then, there has been a general downward trend, with 2 cases reported in 2022, representing a rate of 0.47 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has also decreased from 0.1% in 2012 to 0.01% in 2022. This decline in aggravated assaults is a positive development for public safety.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,857 per square mile in 2010 to 1,754 per square mile in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in total violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has shown some changes, with the white population decreasing from 92% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 6% during the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with the overall decrease in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued low rate of murders, given the consistent absence of such crimes. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate but could potentially stabilize or decrease if recent prevention efforts are implemented. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, with occasional incidents possible. Aggravated assaults are projected to maintain their downward trend, potentially reaching and stabilizing at very low levels.

In summary, Holden has shown an overall improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade. The absence of murders, sporadic nature of robberies, and declining trend in aggravated assaults are positive indicators for public safety. However, the recent uptick in rape cases is a concern that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders. As the city continues to experience demographic changes, maintaining and improving upon these generally positive violent crime trends will be crucial for the well-being of its residents.