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Violent Crime Trends in Hillsborough, NJ: A Suburban Community's Evolving Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hillsborough, New Jersey, is a suburban community that has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 19 incidents in 2020 and a low of 6 in 2022, representing a 57.14% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 22,849 in 2010 to 25,136 in 2022, a 10.01% increase, suggesting a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Murder rates in the city have been relatively low, with only two incidents reported in 2014 and 2021. These isolated events resulted in a murder rate of 0.086 per 1,000 people in 2014 and 0.080 per 1,000 people in 2021. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city peaked at 2.67% in 2021, a significant outlier compared to other years when it contributed 0% to the state's murder statistics. This sporadic pattern suggests that murder is not a persistent issue in the community, but rather an infrequent occurrence that can have a substantial impact on local statistics when it does happen.
Rape incidents have shown more variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 10 in 2016, translating to a rate of 0.427 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state rape statistics peaked at 1.68% in 2021, despite only having 3 reported cases that year. This indicates that while the absolute numbers may be low, the city's share of state rape incidents can be significant in certain years. The rape rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated, with no clear long-term trend, suggesting that local factors may play a role in year-to-year variations.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable, with numbers ranging from 0 to 4 incidents per year. The highest robbery rate was 0.171 per 1,000 people in 2020, with 4 incidents reported. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has generally been low, peaking at 0.58% in 2021. The overall trend suggests that robbery is not a major concern in the community, with rates consistently below national averages for similar-sized communities.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, with numbers ranging from 2 to 10 incidents per year. The highest rate was 0.428 per 1,000 people in 2010, with 10 reported cases. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.39% in 2021. While there have been fluctuations, there is no clear upward or downward trend in aggravated assault rates over the studied period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,855 per square mile in 2010 to 3,141 per square mile in 2022, there were corresponding fluctuations in violent crime rates. However, the relationship is not strictly linear, suggesting other factors are at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the recent downward trend observed in 2022 and the city's historical pattern of low crime rates. However, given the variability seen in past years, occasional spikes in specific crime categories may occur.
In summary, Hillsborough has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth over the past decade. The most significant findings include the sporadic nature of murders, the variability in rape incidents, and the consistent presence of aggravated assaults as the primary form of violent crime. While the community has experienced fluctuations in crime rates, the overall trend suggests a stable to improving safety situation. As the city continues to grow, maintaining community engagement and proactive law enforcement strategies will be crucial in sustaining these positive trends.
