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Violent Crime Trends in Hill Country Village: A Small Texas City's Stable Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hill Country Village, a small Texas community, has maintained consistently low violent crime rates from 2010 to 2022. The city's population fluctuated between 1,636 and 1,813 residents during this period, with a slight overall decline of 4.05%. Despite these population changes, the total number of violent crimes remained low, ranging from 0 to 3 incidents per year. This stability in crime rates persisted even as the population density varied between 746 and 827 people per square mile.
Throughout the entire 13-year period, Hill Country Village reported zero incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. This resulted in a constant murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people, regardless of population fluctuations. The city's contribution to Texas' overall murder statistics consistently remained at 0%, indicating no impact on the state's murder rates.
Rape incidents in Hill Country Village were sporadic and infrequent, with only two reported cases during the entire period: one in 2012 and another in 2014. These isolated incidents translated to a rate of approximately 0.55 rapes per 1,000 people in those specific years, with zero incidents in all other years. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics was minimal, at 0.02% in 2012 and 0.01% in 2014, with no impact in other years.
Robbery in Hill Country Village was equally rare, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period. One robbery occurred in 2012 and another in 2015, representing a rate of about 0.55 robberies per 1,000 people in those specific years. The city's contribution to Texas' robbery statistics was negligible, with no percentage reported for these isolated incidents.
Aggravated assault showed a slight increase in recent years. From 2010 to 2018, there were no reported cases. However, 2019 saw 3 incidents, followed by 1 in 2020, and 1 in 2022. This represents a rate of about 1.81 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people in 2019, decreasing to 0.61 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics remained at 0% due to the low overall numbers.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime incidents. As the population density fluctuated over the years, violent crime incidents remained low and sporadic, showing no consistent pattern relative to density changes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that the city is likely to maintain its low crime rate. Based on the historical data, an average of 1-2 violent crime incidents per year can be expected, with the possibility of some years having zero incidents. The sporadic nature of these crimes makes precise predictions challenging, but the overall trend indicates a continued low level of violent crime.
In summary, Hill Country Village has maintained a remarkably low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, despite minor fluctuations in population. The most significant finding is the city's ability to sustain extended periods with zero violent crimes, particularly in categories like murder and rape. While there has been a slight increase in aggravated assaults in recent years, the numbers remain very low relative to the population. This data paints a picture of a safe community with infrequent violent crime occurrences, a trend that is expected to continue in the near future.
