Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Herrin, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Reductions Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Herrin, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced a significant decrease in total violent crimes, dropping from 174 incidents in 2010 to 46 in 2020, representing a 73.56% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 4.45% from 14,052 in 2010 to 14,677 in 2020.
The murder rate in the city has fluctuated over the years, with no consistent trend. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.17% of the state's total. The city saw no murders in several years (2012-2014, 2016, 2018, 2020), but experienced 2 murders in 2019, accounting for 0.28% of the state's total. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.14, with the highest rate occurring in 2019. Despite these fluctuations, the overall murder rate remained relatively low compared to other violent crimes in the city.
Rape incidents in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 5 reported rapes, representing 0.29% of the state's total. The number dropped to zero in 2011 and 2012, but then increased to 10 cases in 2020, accounting for 0.29% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.68, with the highest rate occurring in 2020. This increase in rape cases, particularly in recent years, warrants attention and may indicate a need for enhanced prevention and support services.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. In 2010, there was 1 robbery, representing 0.01% of the state's total. The number peaked at 12 in 2017 (0.08% of the state's total) but decreased to 3 by 2020 (0.03% of the state's total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.07 to 0.82, with the highest rate in 2017. Overall, robbery rates have remained low compared to other violent crimes in the city.
Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 167 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.66% of the state's total. This number dropped significantly to 0 in 2013 but then started to increase again, reaching 33 cases in 2020 (0.12% of the state's total). The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 11.88, with the highest rate in 2010. The substantial decrease in aggravated assaults has been the primary driver of the overall reduction in violent crimes in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,452 per square mile in 2010 to 1,517 in 2020, the total violent crime rate decreased significantly. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 96% in 2013 to 90% in 2020, and the Hispanic and two or more races populations increased, violent crime rates showed some fluctuations but an overall decrease.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 55-60 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.
In conclusion, Herrin has experienced a significant overall reduction in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, recent upticks in certain categories like rape warrant continued vigilance. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have some correlation with crime trends, suggesting that future urban planning and community policing strategies should take these factors into account to maintain and improve public safety.
