Robbery trends in Hermitage demonstrate a general decline over the observed period. The highest number of robberies was 15 in 2013, accounting for 0.13% of state robberies. By 2018, this had significantly decreased to 2 robberies, representing 0.03% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people declined from 0.55 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2018, indicating an improvement in this area of violent crime.

Aggravated assault cases in Hermitage have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. The peak was in 2016 with 23 cases, representing 0.19% of state aggravated assaults. By 2018, this had decreased to 15 cases, or 0.11% of state aggravated assaults. However, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.43 in 2010 to 0.94 in 2018, indicating a concerning rise in the intensity of this crime relative to the population.

An examination of correlations reveals a potential relationship between population density and violent crime rates in Hermitage. As the population density decreased from 554 people per square mile in 2010 to 540 in 2018, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has seen slight changes, with the white population decreasing from 93% in 2013 to 91% in 2018, while the black population increased from 3% to 5% over the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with fluctuations in violent crime rates, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Based on the observed trends, predictive models project that by 2029, Hermitage may experience a further slight decrease in overall violent crimes. The murder rate is likely to remain low, potentially averaging less than one per year. Rape incidents may stabilize at 1-2 cases annually. Robberies are expected to continue their downward trend, possibly reaching an average of 1-3 per year. Aggravated assaults may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 18-20 cases annually.

In conclusion, Hermitage has exhibited a complex pattern of violent crime trends over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have seen significant improvements, others like aggravated assault have shown concerning increases relative to the population. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to have some correlation with these trends. Moving forward, continued monitoring and targeted interventions may be necessary to address specific areas of concern, particularly in preventing aggravated assaults and maintaining the low rates in other violent crime categories.