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Violent Crime Trends in Henagar, Alabama: A Decade of Decreasing Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Henagar, a city in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes ranged from a high of 5 in 2010 to a low of 1 in several years, with 2 incidents reported in 2022. This represents a 60% decrease in violent crimes over the 12-year period. Meanwhile, the population grew from 3,923 in 2010 to 4,306 in 2022, an increase of 9.76%.
The murder rate in Henagar reveals a consistently low trend. Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, there were no reported murders. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murder cases. This suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides, despite other demographic changes.
Rape statistics for Henagar show a similar pattern to murders. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported rape cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's rape statistics. This consistent absence of reported rapes over more than a decade is significant and could indicate effective preventive measures or potential underreporting issues that may warrant further investigation.
Robbery trends in Henagar mirror those of murder and rape. Throughout the 12-year period, no robberies were reported. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has stayed at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's robbery statistics. This absence of robberies, despite population growth, suggests a low risk of property-related violent crimes in the area.
Aggravated assault has been the primary form of violent crime in Henagar. In 2010, there were 5 cases of aggravated assault, representing 0.08% of the state's total. This number decreased to 2 cases in 2011 and 2022, with fluctuations in between. The rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people has decreased from 1.27 in 2010 to 0.46 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has also decreased from 0.08% to 0.02% over this period. This overall downward trend in aggravated assaults, despite population growth, indicates an improving safety situation in the city.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a weak negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 173 per square mile in 2010 to 190 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 87% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, violent crime rates remained low or decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the current low crime rates. Based on the historical data, it's projected that Henagar will likely maintain its low violent crime rates, with aggravated assaults potentially fluctuating between 1 to 3 cases annually. The absence of murders, rapes, and robberies is expected to persist, barring any significant changes in local conditions or reporting practices.
In summary, Henagar has demonstrated a remarkably low and decreasing violent crime rate over the past decade, particularly in the context of its growing population. The consistent absence of murders, rapes, and robberies, coupled with the declining trend in aggravated assaults, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. These trends, if maintained, could positively impact the city's reputation and quality of life for its residents in the coming years.
