Robbery trends in Heflin have been relatively low but variable. The city reported no robberies in 2010, 2015, and 2022. The highest number was recorded in 2012 with 2 incidents, representing 0.05% of the state's total. In 2021, there was 1 robbery, accounting for 0.12% of the state's robberies. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.35 in 2012 and was 0.18 in 2021. The overall trend indicates that robbery remains an infrequent occurrence in the city.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in Heflin. In 2010, there were 11 cases, representing 0.18% of the state's total. This number increased to 16 in 2012 (0.15% of state total) but then dramatically decreased to 1 in 2015 (0.01% of state total). By 2022, there were 2 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.02% of the state's incidents. The rate per 1,000 people varied from a high of 2.82 in 2012 to a low of 0.19 in 2015, settling at 0.34 in 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in assault prevention over the years, despite some fluctuations.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 364 per square mile in 2010 to 345 in 2020, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently making up around 90% of the total from 2013 to 2022. This stability in racial demographics coincides with the overall decrease in violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued low level of violent crimes in Heflin. Based on the current trends, it's projected that the city will maintain its zero murder rate and likely see further reductions in other violent crime categories. The number of aggravated assaults is expected to stabilize at around 2-3 incidents per year, while rape and robbery cases are likely to remain at or near zero.

In summary, Heflin has demonstrated a notable improvement in its violent crime rates over the past decade. The consistent absence of murders, the reduction in rape cases to zero, and the significant decrease in aggravated assaults are particularly noteworthy achievements. These trends, coupled with the city's stable racial composition and slightly decreasing population density, suggest that Heflin has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and reducing violent crime.