Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low. The highest number of robberies reported was 4 in 2011 and 2013, with a rate of 0.207 per 1,000 people in 2011. Notably, there were no reported robberies in 2022, down from 2 cases in 2018. The city's percentage of state robberies has fluctuated but remained generally low, peaking at 0.11% in 2013 and dropping to 0% in 2022. This suggests that robbery is not a major concern for the city compared to other violent crimes.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. The number of cases rose dramatically from 6 in 2010 to 49 in 2015, then dropped to 18 in 2016, before rising again to 56 in 2018. In 2022, there were 23 reported cases. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 2.498 in 2015 and stood at 1.115 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults reached a high of 0.48% in 2018 but decreased to 0.2% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest a need for targeted interventions to address the underlying causes of aggravated assault.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,123 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,238 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate also showed an upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 93% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, and the black population increased from 2% to 6% over the same period, violent crime rates showed an overall increase.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Hartselle may see a continued modest increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and possibly murders if the 2022 trend continues. The rape incidents are likely to remain fluctuating but potentially increasing slightly. Robberies are expected to remain low or potentially non-existent if the recent trend holds.

In summary, Hartselle has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. The most significant concerns are the recent emergence of murder cases, the fluctuating but persistent rape incidents, and the volatile trends in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic changes and increasing population density, suggest that the city may face ongoing challenges in maintaining public safety. The data underscores the importance of targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address these evolving crime patterns in Hartselle.