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Violent Crime Trends in Hamilton, Missouri: A Decade of Stability Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hamilton, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 7 incidents in 2016 and a low of 1 incident in 2014. Over this period, the city's population declined from 2,449 in 2010 to 1,845 in 2021, representing a 24.7% decrease.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2021. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population decline. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the city has consistently contributed 0% to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. There were no reported rapes from 2010 to 2016. However, in 2017, there was 1 reported rape, which then increased to 3 in 2019, before decreasing to 0 in 2020 and rising again to 1 in 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.51 in 2017, peaked at 1.42 per 1,000 in 2019, and stood at 0.54 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics rose from 0% to 0.15% in 2019, then decreased to 0.05% in 2021.
Robbery incidents have been rare in the city. There was only one reported robbery in 2011, with all other years showing zero robberies. This single incident in 2011 represented a rate of 0.43 per 1,000 people and 0.02% of the state's robberies for that year. The consistent absence of robberies in other years suggests a generally low risk for this type of crime in the area.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated from a high of 7 in 2016 to a low of 1 in 2014 and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, peaking at 3.48 per 1,000 in 2016 and dropping to 0.52 per 1,000 in 2014 and 0.54 in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics ranged from 0.01% to 0.04% over the years, with the highest percentage occurring in 2016.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,667 per square mile in 2010 to 1,256 in 2021, there was a slight overall increase in violent crime incidents, though this trend was not consistent year-to-year. Median rent showed a general upward trend from $587 in 2013 to $636 in 2021, but no strong correlation with violent crime rates is apparent.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect the overall violent crime rate to remain relatively low but with potential fluctuations. Based on the historical data, we could anticipate between 2 to 5 violent crime incidents annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, Hamilton has maintained a relatively low level of violent crime over the past decade, despite population decline. The absence of murders, rare occurrences of robberies, and fluctuating but generally low rates of rape and aggravated assault characterize the city's crime landscape. While there have been some variations in crime rates, the overall violent crime situation appears stable, with no dramatic increases observed. This trend, if continued, suggests that Hamilton may maintain its relatively safe status in the coming years.
