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Violent Crime Trends in Gurley, Alabama: A Decade of Stability Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Gurley, Alabama, a small community spanning just 3.68 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 1 to 2, representing a 100% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 3,786 to 4,008, a 5.86% increase. This disproportionate rise in violent crime relative to population growth warrants a closer examination of the various crime categories and their trends.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murder cases attributable to the city has also remained at 0% throughout this time, indicating that Gurley has not contributed to Alabama's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. In 2013 and 2015, the city reported 2 cases each year, while other years saw no reported rapes. The rape rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.52 in 2013 and 0.48 in 2015, corresponding to 0.17% and 0.16% of the state's total rape cases, respectively. By 2022, the rape rate had returned to 0, suggesting an improvement in this area of violent crime.
Robbery trends in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases from 2010 to 2022. This stability is remarkable, especially considering the population growth during this period. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has remained at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has consistently been 0%.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 4 cases in 2014 and 2015, before decreasing to 2 cases in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.03 in 2014 and stood at 0.50 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.04% over the years.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,028 per square mile in 2010 to 1,089 in 2022, showing a moderate positive correlation with the overall violent crime rate. Additionally, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between the proportion of white residents (which increased from 87% in 2013 to 92% in 2022) and the violent crime rate.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it is projected that the number of violent crimes may remain around 2-3 cases per year, with aggravated assault likely continuing to be the primary contributor to these figures.
In conclusion, Gurley has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While the overall number of violent crimes has doubled, this increase is primarily driven by fluctuations in aggravated assault cases. The city has maintained a consistently low profile in terms of murder and robbery, with no reported cases throughout the period. The community's ability to maintain relatively low crime rates despite population growth is noteworthy, and future efforts should focus on sustaining and improving upon these trends to ensure the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
