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Violent Crime Trends in Gunnison, Colorado: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Gunnison, Colorado, a small urban center with a population of 9,439 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with a peak of 29 incidents in 2021 and a low of 12 in 2020. This represents a decrease of 8.33% in violent crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite a population growth of 9.83% during the same period.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only two reported cases in 2013 and 2014, representing 0.75% and 0.87% of state murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.12 in 2013 and 2014 but has been zero for most years. This suggests that homicide is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend over time.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from a low of 1 case in 2020 to a high of 7 cases in 2014 and 2015. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.84 in 2014 and 2015 but decreased to 0.21 per 1,000 in 2022. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city has varied, with the highest being 0.3% in 2011 and 2012, declining to 0.06% in 2022. This indicates a general downward trend in rape cases relative to the state's total.
Robbery has been infrequent in the city, with only six reported cases between 2010 and 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.35 (in 2015). The city's contribution to state robbery cases has been minimal, peaking at 0.1% in 2015 but remaining at 0% for most years, including 2022. This suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 10 in 2017 to a high of 23 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, peaking at 2.56 in 2010 and falling to 2.12 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has generally decreased, from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, indicating a relative improvement compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,772 per square mile in 2010 to 1,946 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a slight downward trend. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 25-30 incidents annually. This forecast assumes current trends continue and no significant changes occur in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Gunnison has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's contribution to state crime figures has generally decreased across all categories of violent crime. While there have been fluctuations, the overall trend suggests a stable or slightly improving violent crime situation, especially when considered in the context of population growth. The city's ability to maintain low murder and robbery rates is particularly noteworthy and speaks to the relative safety of the community.
