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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Greenwood, Mississippi, a small city with a population of 21,523 in 2022, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. This analysis examines the fluctuations in violent crime rates against a backdrop of declining population from 2010 to 2017. During this period, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 94 to 84, representing a 10.6% reduction, while the population decreased by 7.9%, from 23,774 to 21,898.
The murder rate in Greenwood has shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 5 murders, which rose to 7 in 2011, then dropped sharply to 1 in 2012, before rising again to 4 in 2013. By 2017, the city reported no murders. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2013, before reaching zero in 2017. The city's contribution to the state's total murders also varied widely, from 4.55% in 2010 to a high of 5.11% in 2011, before dropping to 0.9% in 2012 and then rising again to 4.17% in 2013. This volatility suggests a need for targeted interventions to address the underlying causes of these extreme variations.
Rape incidents in Greenwood showed an alarming increase from 10 cases in 2010 to 23 in 2012, before dropping to 5 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.42 in 2010 to 0.98 in 2012, then decreased to 0.23 in 2017. The city's share of state rape cases increased from 2.08% in 2010 to 5.09% in 2012, before declining to 2.79% in 2017. This trend indicates a period of heightened risk followed by significant improvement, possibly due to enhanced law enforcement efforts or community initiatives.
Robbery incidents in the city fluctuated over the years, starting at 29 in 2010, peaking at 37 in 2011, and then decreasing to 23 by 2017. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, rising from 1.22 in 2010 to 1.56 in 2011, before falling to 1.05 in 2017. The city's contribution to state robbery figures increased from 1.36% in 2010 to 2.18% in 2011, and remained relatively stable at 2% by 2017. This trend suggests a moderate improvement in robbery prevention over time.
Aggravated assault cases in Greenwood showed an overall increase, rising from 50 in 2010 to 56 in 2017, despite some fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.1 in 2010 to 2.56 in 2017. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases also increased from 2.45% in 2010 to 3.09% in 2017. This upward trend in aggravated assaults, even as the population decreased, indicates a growing concern that may require targeted intervention strategies.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some notable patterns. The city's population density decreased from 1,927 per square mile in 2010 to 1,775 in 2017, coinciding with the overall decrease in violent crimes. However, the proportion of Black residents increased from 70% in 2013 to 73% in 2017, while the proportion of White residents decreased from 26% to 23% over the same period. This demographic shift occurred alongside the fluctuations in violent crime rates, suggesting a potential correlation that warrants further investigation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the murder rate may remain low but could experience occasional spikes due to its historical volatility. Rape incidents are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching and maintaining lower levels. Robbery rates are likely to stabilize or show a slight decrease. However, aggravated assaults may continue to pose a challenge, with a possible continuation of the upward trend unless significant interventions are implemented.
In conclusion, Greenwood's violent crime landscape presents a mixed picture. While some categories of violent crime have shown improvement, others, particularly aggravated assaults, remain a concern. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to have some correlation with these crime trends. Moving forward, targeted strategies focusing on assault prevention and community engagement will be crucial in shaping a safer future for Greenwood's residents.