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Violent Crime Trends in Greenville, Illinois: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Rising Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Greenville, Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime numbers, with a peak of 14 incidents in 2018 and a low of 2 incidents in both 2010 and 2015. During this same period, the population showed a slight overall decline, from 9,742 in 2010 to 9,331 in 2022, representing a 4.22% decrease.
The murder rate in the city has remained exceptionally low, with only two recorded incidents over the 12-year period. These occurred in 2011 and 2018, each representing 0.17% and 0.13% of the state's total murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.10 in 2011 and 0.11 in 2018, reflecting the city's generally safe environment despite these isolated incidents.
Rape statistics for the city are largely unavailable or reported as zero throughout the period, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends or state comparisons for this specific crime.
Robbery incidents have been infrequent, with only five reported cases across the entire period. The highest number was in 2018 with 2 robberies, representing 0.02% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.22 in 2018 but remained at zero for most years, indicating that robbery is not a persistent issue in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated, reaching a high of 11 in 2018 (1.18 per 1,000 people) and a low of 1 in 2012 (0.10 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0% to 0.05%, with the highest contribution in 2022. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend shows a slight increase in aggravated assaults over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,544 per square mile in 2010 to 1,479 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed a slight upward trend. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
The racial demographics of the city have shifted slightly, with the white population decreasing from 88% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, while the black population increased from 2% to 12% over the same period. This demographic change coincides with the slight increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, but again, the correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that the violent crime rate may continue to fluctuate but is likely to remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). The model suggests a potential range of 5 to 10 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assault continuing to be the primary concern.
In summary, Greenville has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate despite some fluctuations. The most significant trend has been the slight increase in aggravated assaults, which warrants continued attention from local law enforcement. While demographic shifts have occurred, their direct impact on crime rates remains inconclusive. The city's overall violent crime picture remains stable, with occasional spikes that do not appear to indicate a long-term upward trend.
