Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Graymoor-Devondale: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Kentucky City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Graymoor-Devondale, located in Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in both its total violent crime incidents and population. The total number of violent crimes ranged from a low of 0 in 2011 and 2018 to a high of 6 in 2021, representing a 200% increase over this timeframe. Concurrently, the population grew from 3,084 in 2010 to 3,128 in 2021, a modest 1.43% increase.
Regarding murder rates, Graymoor-Devondale has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2021. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0 throughout this period, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murders. This trend suggests a remarkably safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city were non-existent from 2010 to 2020, with the first reported case occurring in 2021. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.32 rapes per 1,000 people in 2021, accounting for 0.11% of the state's total rapes that year. While this marks an increase from previous years, it's important to note that a single incident in a small population can significantly impact rates and percentages.
Robbery trends in Graymoor-Devondale have fluctuated over the years. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4, with the highest incidence in 2021. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 1.28 in 2021, up from 0 in 2018 and 2019. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies has varied, reaching a high of 0.31% in 2020 before slightly decreasing to 0.19% in 2021. These fluctuations suggest a variable but generally low-level robbery risk in the city.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown inconsistency over the years. The number of cases ranged from 0 to 2, with the highest count occurring in 2014 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.68 in 2014. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assaults has remained relatively low, reaching a maximum of 0.11% in 2020. This trend indicates that while aggravated assaults occur, they are not a persistent or escalating problem in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 4,182 per square mile in 2010 to 4,242 in 2021, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent rose from $768 in 2013 to $1,299 in 2021, violent crime incidents showed a slight increase, though not consistently.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the slight upward trend in overall violent crime incidents. Based on historical patterns, we might expect the number of annual violent crimes to range between 5 and 8 incidents by 2029. However, given the city's small size and historical variability, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously.
In summary, Graymoor-Devondale has maintained a relatively low level of violent crime despite modest population growth. The most significant changes have been in robbery and aggravated assault rates, while murder rates have remained at zero. The recent uptick in rape cases, though minimal, warrants attention. The city's violent crime trends, while showing some increase, remain low in the broader context of urban crime rates. Graymoor-Devondale's experience underscores the complex interplay between population dynamics, economic factors, and crime rates in small urban settings.
