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Violent Crime Trends in Graham, NC: A Decade of Change and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Graham, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 47 to 73, representing a 55.3% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 15,666 to 19,338, a 23.4% increase. This disparity between crime and population growth rates suggests a complex dynamic in the city's safety landscape.
The murder rate in Graham has shown fluctuations over the years. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported murders. The city saw its first murder in 2012, with the rate remaining at 1-2 cases per year until 2020, when it jumped to 3 cases. In 2022, there were no reported murders again. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.17 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributed to Graham has varied, reaching a high of 0.76% in 2016 and dropping to 0% in 2022. These fluctuations indicate a volatile but generally low murder rate in the context of the city's growth.
Rape cases in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 12 cases by 2022, a 300% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases has also increased, from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.63% in 2022. This trend suggests a growing issue with sexual violence that outpaces population growth.
Robbery trends in Graham have been variable but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 6 reported robberies, which increased to 10 in 2022, a 66.7% rise. The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.38 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022, due to population growth outpacing the increase in robberies. The city's share of state robberies has increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.2% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to state-level robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most significant increase among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 38 reported cases, which rose to 51 in 2022, a 34.2% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.43 in 2010 to 2.64 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has decreased from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, suggesting that while the local rate has increased, it hasn't grown as quickly as the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime rates and changes in racial demographics. From 2013 to 2022, the white population percentage decreased from 62% to 57%, while the Black population increased from 17% to 21%, and the Hispanic population grew from 16% to 18%. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime rates. Additionally, the rising median rent, from $620 in 2013 to $858 in 2022, may be indicative of economic pressures that could contribute to increased crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Graham may see a continued increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 85-90 total incidents annually. Rape and aggravated assault are likely to show the most significant increases, while murder rates may remain volatile but low.
In summary, Graham has experienced a concerning rise in violent crime rates that has outpaced its population growth. The most significant increases have been in rape and aggravated assault cases, while murder rates have remained relatively low but unpredictable. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and rising housing costs, paint a picture of a city grappling with evolving safety challenges amidst rapid growth and change.
