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Violent Crime Trends in Gordo: A Decade of Fluctuations in Alabama's Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Gordo, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. This small community, with a population of 3,548 in 2022, has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased from 4 to 2, representing a 50% reduction. During the same period, the population experienced minor fluctuations, ultimately resulting in a slight decrease of 1.58% from 3,605 in 2010 to 3,548 in 2022.
Regarding murder trends, the data shows only one instance in 2011, accounting for 0.41% of the state's murders that year. This isolated incident translates to a rate of 0.28 murders per 1,000 people. In all other years with available data (2010, 2021, and 2022), no murders were reported. The absence of murders in recent years suggests an improvement in public safety with respect to this most serious violent crime.
The data provided does not show any reported rapes in Gordo for the years 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2022. This consistent absence of reported rapes could indicate either effective prevention measures or potential underreporting issues. Without more comprehensive data, it's challenging to draw definitive conclusions about rape trends in the city.
Similarly, robbery data shows no reported incidents for the years 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2022. The consistent zero figures for robbery suggest that this particular type of violent crime is not a significant issue in the community during the periods for which data is available.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 4 aggravated assaults, representing 0.07% of the state's total. This number increased to 6 in 2011, accounting for 0.06% of the state's aggravated assaults. Interestingly, in 2021, no aggravated assaults were reported. However, in 2022, there were 2 incidents, representing 0.02% of the state's total. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people fluctuated from 1.11 in 2010 to 1.69 in 2011, then dropped to 0 in 2021, before rising slightly to 0.56 in 2022. This overall downward trend in aggravated assaults suggests an improvement in public safety over the years.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with the racial distribution in the city. The percentage of Black residents increased from 19% in 2019 to 27% in 2022, coinciding with a slight increase in violent crimes from 0 in 2021 to 2 in 2022. However, it's important to note that this correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may play a role in crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the number of violent crimes to remain relatively low, potentially fluctuating between 0 and 3 incidents per year. This prediction is based on the historical data showing low and decreasing violent crime rates in recent years.
In summary, Gordo has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant improvement has been in aggravated assaults, which have decreased both in number and as a percentage of state totals. While there was a slight uptick in violent crimes from 2021 to 2022, the overall trend remains favorable. The city's small size and relatively stable population contribute to these low crime numbers, suggesting that community-based crime prevention efforts may be effective in maintaining public safety.
