Robbery trends in Gloucester City show a general decline over the observed period. The highest number of robberies was recorded in 2011 with 16 incidents (0.18% of state total), while the lowest was 3 incidents in 2019 (0.08% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 residents has decreased from 1.22 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. This downward trend in both absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals indicates improving conditions in the city regarding this type of crime.

Aggravated assault cases have shown more volatility. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 10 in 2015 and 2020 to a high of 23 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.87 in 2010 to 2.01 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state total for aggravated assaults increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, indicating that this crime category has become more prevalent in Gloucester City relative to the rest of New Jersey.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 4,968 per square mile in 2010 to 4,940 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime, though with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 83% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 19% over the same period, there were fluctuations in crime rates, particularly noticeable in aggravated assaults.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Gloucester City may see a slight increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching around 25-27 incidents annually. Robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly averaging 4-5 incidents per year. Rape and murder rates are likely to remain at their current low levels, with potentially 0-1 incidents per year for each category.

In summary, Gloucester City has shown mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murder, rape, and robbery rates have generally decreased or remained low, aggravated assaults have seen an uptick in recent years. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to have some correlation with these trends. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders may need to focus on strategies to address the rising aggravated assault rates while maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories.