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Violent Crime Trends in Glendive, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Glendive, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its total violent crime incidents and population. The total number of violent crimes varied from a low of 5 in 2019 to a high of 22 in 2021, representing a 340% increase over that specific timeframe. Meanwhile, the population showed a slight overall decline, decreasing from 5,200 in 2010 to 4,910 in 2022, a 5.58% reduction.
Analyzing murder trends, Glendive reported only one incident in 2012, accounting for 12.5% of the state's murders that year. In all other years, there were no reported murders. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.19 murders per 1,000 people in 2012. The rarity of murder cases in the city suggests it is not a prevalent issue, though the single occurrence had a significant impact on state statistics for that year.
Rape incidents in the city fluctuated over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2015, representing a rate of 0.92 per 1,000 people and 1.69% of the state's total that year. The most recent data from 2022 shows 3 reported rapes, or 0.61 per 1,000 people, accounting for 0.75% of the state's total. Despite some yearly variations, there's no clear long-term trend in rape incidents, with the rate per 1,000 people remaining relatively stable given the population changes.
Robbery occurrences in Glendive were infrequent. The highest number reported was 2 in 2010, representing 2.17% of the state's robberies that year. Since then, robberies have been sporadic, with single incidents reported in 2013 and 2021, and no robberies reported in most years. This suggests that robbery is not a significant ongoing concern for the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 4 in 2010 to a high of 17 in 2021. In 2022, there were 14 aggravated assaults, representing a rate of 2.85 per 1,000 people and 0.59% of the state's total. The trend for aggravated assault has been variable but generally increasing over the years, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. For instance, in 2015, when the population density peaked at 1,560 per square mile, the city also experienced one of its highest violent crime counts at 21 incidents. Conversely, in 2022, when the population density dropped to 1,413 per square mile, violent crime incidents decreased to 17.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall violent crime rate to continue its slight upward trend. Based on the historical data, aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary contributor to violent crime, potentially reaching 18-20 incidents per year by 2029. Rape incidents may stabilize around 2-3 per year, while robberies are expected to remain infrequent, possibly occurring once every few years.
In summary, Glendive has experienced fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most significant concern. The city's violent crime rates, while variable, have generally remained low relative to its population size. The relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that demographic changes may continue to influence crime trends in the coming years. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address aggravated assault could be particularly beneficial in maintaining public safety and reducing overall violent crime rates.
