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Violent Crime Trends in Geneva, Alabama: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Geneva, Alabama, a small urban area with a population of 6,862 as of 2022, has experienced notable changes in both its violent crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 15 to 11, representing a 26.67% reduction. During the same period, the population grew from 6,265 to 6,862, an increase of 9.53%. Murder trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting zero murders. The only exceptions were in 2015 and 2021, when one murder was reported each year. This translates to a murder rate of 0.15 per 1,000 people in both years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city was 0.38% in 2015 and 0.56% in 2021, indicating a slight increase in the city's contribution to state-wide murder statistics despite the infrequency of such crimes.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2016, corresponding to a rate of 0.70 per 1,000 people. The lowest was 0 in 2012 and 2014. In 2022, there was 1 reported rape, a rate of 0.15 per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state rape cases has varied, peaking at 0.45% in 2016 and dropping to 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while rape remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has decreased in recent years.
Robbery incidents in the city have been relatively low but variable. The highest number of robberies was 4 in 2017, a rate of 0.58 per 1,000 people. In 2022, there were no reported robberies. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.15% in 2017 and fell to 0% in 2022, indicating a positive trend in reducing this type of crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The highest number of aggravated assaults was 21 in 2014, a rate of 3.07 per 1,000 people. In 2022, there were 10 aggravated assaults, a rate of 1.46 per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.22% in 2014 and falling to 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while aggravated assault remains the most common violent crime, its frequency has decreased both in absolute terms and relative to state figures.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 394 people per square mile in 2011 to 432 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to improve safety despite becoming more densely populated.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The city may see further reductions in aggravated assaults and robberies, while murder rates are likely to remain low but potentially fluctuate due to their infrequent nature. Rape incidents may continue to vary but are expected to remain relatively low compared to state averages.
In summary, Geneva has shown a general improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in reducing aggravated assaults and robberies. The city's contribution to state-wide violent crime statistics has generally decreased, indicating positive progress in enhancing public safety. As the population continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the city's ongoing development and the well-being of its residents.
