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Violent Crime Trends in Geneseo, Illinois: A Small City's Struggle with Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Geneseo, Illinois, a small community with a population of 7,096 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates alongside modest population changes from 2010 to 2022. The total number of violent crimes increased from 7 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, representing a 114.29% increase. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 7,059 to 7,096, a 0.52% increase.
Examining murder trends, Geneseo reported only one murder in 2014, with no other incidents recorded in the available data. This single event represented 0.17% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.14 in 2014, an anomaly in an otherwise murder-free period. This isolated incident suggests that homicide is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend over time.
Rape cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. The data shows 3 cases in 2011 (0.17% of state total), 1 in 2012 (0.06%), 3 in 2015 (0.09%), 2 in 2016 (0.06%), 2 in 2017 (0.05%), and 1 in 2022 (0.03%). The rape rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.14 to 0.42, with the highest in 2011 and 2015. There's a general downward trend in both the number of cases and the percentage of state totals, indicating improving safety in this category relative to the state.
Robbery data for Geneseo is limited, with only one reported incident in 2022, representing 0.01% of the state's robberies. This translates to a rate of about 0.14 per 1,000 people. The absence of robberies in previous years suggests this crime type is infrequent in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Geneseo. The number of cases varied from a low of 3 in 2012 and 2015 to a high of 13 in 2011 and 2022. The percentage of state totals ranged from 0.01% to 0.1%. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.42 and 1.83. There's no clear linear trend, but the most recent data point in 2022 shows an uptick to 13 cases (0.1% of state total), indicating a potential area of concern.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased slightly from 1,500 per square mile in 2010 to 1,508 in 2022, violent crimes also saw an overall increase. However, the relationship is not consistently strong throughout the years.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Geneseo may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 18-20 incidents annually if current trends continue. This forecast assumes no significant changes in local law enforcement strategies or socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Geneseo has maintained relatively low violent crime rates compared to state averages, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's safety profile remains generally positive, with isolated incidents rather than persistent high crime rates. However, the recent uptick in aggravated assaults warrants attention from local authorities to prevent a potential developing trend.
