Robbery trends in the city showed a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 189 robberies, which decreased to 154 in 2022, an 18.5% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.881 in 2010 to 0.688 in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to population growth. The city's percentage of state robberies remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.26% to 0.44% over the years, with 0.37% in 2022.

Aggravated assault incidents in Fremont increased over the period. In 2010, there were 256 aggravated assaults, which rose to 271 in 2022, a 5.9% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased only slightly from 1.193 in 2010 to 1.211 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults remained relatively low, ranging from 0.16% to 0.34%, with 0.27% in 2022.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,747 per square mile in 2010 to 2,866 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally trended upward. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $1,669 in 2013 to $2,745 in 2022, violent crime rates also showed an overall increase, suggesting a potential link between housing costs and crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent trends. Based on the historical data, we can project that the overall violent crime rate may continue to fluctuate but is likely to remain within 5-10% of the 2022 levels. Murder rates may stabilize around 3-5 incidents per year. Rape incidents could continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching 30-35 cases annually. Robbery rates may continue their downward trend, possibly dropping to 140-150 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults might see a slight increase, potentially reaching 280-290 cases annually.

In summary, Fremont's violent crime landscape has shown mixed trends over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have seen significant improvements, others like aggravated assault have increased. The city's growth in population and housing costs appears to have some correlation with crime rates, though the relationship is complex. Despite these challenges, Fremont maintains relatively low crime rates compared to state averages, particularly in serious offenses like murder and rape. As the city continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.