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Violent Crime Trends in Four Oaks, NC: A Study of Stability Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Four Oaks, a small community in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime trends alongside significant population growth over recent years. From 2012 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 7 incidents in 2019 and a low of 2 in 2020. During this same period, the population grew substantially from 5,241 in 2012 to 7,164 in 2021, representing a 36.7% increase.
Examining murder trends, Four Oaks has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2012 to 2021. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, indicating that the murder rate per 1,000 people has effectively decreased over time. The percentage of state crime for murder has remained at 0% throughout this period, suggesting that the city has successfully managed to prevent homicides despite its growing population.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability. In 2012, there was 1 reported rape, representing 0.08% of the state's total. The rate fluctuated in subsequent years, with no reported cases in 2019, but returning to 1 incident in 2020 and 2021. When considering the population growth, the rape rate per 1,000 people has generally decreased. The percentage of state crime for rape has also fluctuated, ranging from 0% to 0.08%, indicating that the city's contribution to statewide rape statistics remains relatively low.
Robbery trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with 1 incident reported in 2012, 2019, 2020, and 2021. The consistency in robbery numbers, despite population growth, suggests a decreasing rate per 1,000 people over time. The percentage of state crime for robbery has stayed low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.02%, indicating that the city's contribution to statewide robbery statistics is minimal.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more variability. In 2012, there were 4 reported cases, representing 0.03% of the state's total. This number increased to 12 cases in 2018, accounting for 0.09% of state crime. However, it decreased to 6 cases in 2019, dropped to 0 in 2020, and rose slightly to 1 case in 2021. When considering population growth, the rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people has generally decreased, particularly from 2018 to 2021.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable relationship between population density and violent crime trends. As the population density increased from 2,147 people per square mile in 2012 to 2,935 in 2021, the overall violent crime rate per capita decreased, suggesting that the city has managed to maintain relatively low crime rates despite becoming more densely populated.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that Four Oaks will likely continue to experience low and stable violent crime rates. The city's consistent record of zero murders is expected to persist. Rape and robbery incidents are predicted to remain low, potentially averaging 1 case per year. Aggravated assault cases may fluctuate but are expected to stay below 5 incidents annually, given the recent downward trend.
In summary, Four Oaks has demonstrated a remarkable ability to maintain low violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most important discovery is the city's consistent absence of murders and the general downward trend in per capita violent crime rates across all categories. This suggests that the community has implemented effective crime prevention strategies and maintained a safe environment for its growing population. As the city continues to expand, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for sustaining the quality of life for its residents.
