Robbery trends show a generally decreasing pattern from 2010 to 2019, followed by a sharp increase in recent years. In 2010, there were 16 robberies, which decreased to 3 in 2014. However, by 2022, the number rose to 17. The robbery rate per 1,000 people followed a similar trend, peaking at 0.455 in 2010 and reaching a low of 0.083 in 2014, before increasing to 0.427 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery figures has grown, from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.71% in 2022, indicating a faster increase in robberies compared to the state average.

Aggravated assault cases have shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 18 reported cases, which remained relatively stable until 2020 when there were 22 cases. However, in 2022, the number jumped dramatically to 44. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.512 in 2010 to 1.106 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.78% in 2022, suggesting a faster growth rate compared to the state average.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density grew from 13,962 per square mile in 2010 to 15,808 in 2022, violent crimes also increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation with changes in racial distribution. The Asian population percentage increased from 39% in 2013 to 44% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 45% to 38% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the rise in violent crimes, though causation cannot be inferred.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Fort Lee may see a further increase in violent crimes. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching around 70-80 cases annually. Robberies may stabilize or slightly increase to about 20-25 cases per year. Rape incidents are harder to predict due to their fluctuation but may average around 5-7 cases annually. Murder rates are expected to remain very low, with possibly 0-1 cases per year.

In summary, Fort Lee has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and robberies, despite maintaining very low murder rates. The city's growing population density and changing demographic composition appear to correlate with these trends. While the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low compared to national averages, the rising trends, especially in aggravated assaults, warrant attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the continued safety and security of Fort Lee's residents.