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Violent Crime Trends in Fort Gibson: Small Town Faces Demographic Shifts and Crime Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fort Gibson, located in Oklahoma, presents an interesting case study for violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 6 incidents in 2010 to 8 in 2022, representing a 33.33% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 5,517 in 2010 to 4,395 in 2022, a 20.34% decline.
Examining murder trends, the city experienced an unusual spike in 2021 with one reported case, which accounted for 0.45% of the state's murders that year. This singular event stands out as an anomaly, as no other murders were reported in the available data from 2010 to 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people in 2021 was approximately 0.23, a significant increase from the zero rate maintained in other years. This isolated incident, while concerning, does not appear to represent a broader trend in the city's safety profile.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2013, representing 1.38% of the state's total. In recent years, the number has stabilized at 1 incident per year from 2018 to 2022, with the exception of 2 cases in 2019. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022, despite the population decrease. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.05% and 0.11% in recent years.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal, with only sporadic occurrences. The data shows 1 robbery each in 2010, 2016, 2017, and 2019, representing between 0.03% and 0.04% of the state's robberies in those years. No robberies were reported in other years, including 2021 and 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained very low, with a maximum of 0.22 in 2019. This suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the city's residents.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated, with a peak of 19 cases in 2014, representing 0.21% of the state's total. In 2022, there were 7 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.07% of the state's cases. The rate per 1,000 people has varied, from a low of 0.21 in 2011 to a high of 4.00 in 2014. In 2022, the rate was 1.59 per 1,000 people, showing an increase from the 2010 rate of 0.72, despite the population decrease.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the Native American population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Native American population increased from 13% in 2013 to 28% in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents. Additionally, the decrease in population density from 413 people per square mile in 2010 to 329 in 2022 coincided with fluctuations in crime rates, suggesting a possible link between demographic shifts and crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we can anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crime incidents. Based on the historical data and current trends, the city may see an average of 10-12 violent crimes per year by 2029, with aggravated assault likely remaining the predominant offense.
In summary, Fort Gibson has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with a notable increase in aggravated assaults despite a decreasing population. The city's changing demographic composition, particularly the growing Native American population, appears to correlate with these trends. While isolated incidents of more serious crimes like murder have occurred, they remain rare. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing the underlying factors contributing to aggravated assaults to enhance public safety in this evolving small-town landscape.
