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Violent Crime Trends in Fort Benton: A Study of Aggravated Assaults Amidst Low Overall Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fort Benton, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 1 incident in 2020 to 7 incidents in 2022, representing a 600% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 1,354 in 2010 to 1,544 in 2022, a 14% increase.
Examining murder trends, Fort Benton experienced only one murder between 2010 and 2022, occurring in 2013. This single incident represented 10% of the state's murders that year. With a population of 1,471 in 2013, this translates to a rate of 0.68 murders per 1,000 residents. The rarity of this event makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it highlights the significant impact a single violent crime can have in a small community.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported rapes from 2010 to 2014. In 2015, two rapes were reported, accounting for 0.68% of the state's total. This equates to a rate of 1.49 rapes per 1,000 residents. In 2016, one rape was reported (0.31% of state total), and in 2020, another single incident occurred (0.29% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased to 0.68 in 2020 due to population growth. These figures suggest that while rape remains a concern, its occurrence is infrequent and has not shown a consistent upward trend.
Robbery has been notably absent from the city's crime statistics throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistent lack of robberies is a positive aspect of the city's safety profile, especially when compared to other forms of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated over the years, with a significant increase from 0 in 2020 to 7 in 2022. In 2010, there were 4 aggravated assaults (0.48% of state total), which equated to 2.95 incidents per 1,000 residents. By 2022, the 7 incidents represented 0.3% of the state total, with a rate of 4.53 per 1,000 residents. This indicates a concerning upward trend in both the number of incidents and the rate per capita.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 590 people per square mile in 2010 to 673 in 2022, the number of violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 98% in 2013 to 86% in 2022. During this period, there was a notable increase in the Hispanic population from 1% to 8%. However, the data does not suggest a strong correlation between these demographic shifts and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, we can forecast that by 2029, the city may experience up to 10-12 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This prediction assumes a continuation of the recent upward trend in aggravated assaults and accounts for potential population growth.
In summary, Fort Benton has seen a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While murder and rape incidents remain relatively rare, their occurrence has a significant impact on the community due to its small size. The absence of robberies is a positive aspect of the city's crime profile. The correlation between population density and violent crime rates suggests that as the city grows, it may face increased challenges in maintaining public safety. Local authorities may need to focus on preventive measures and community-based interventions to address the rising trend of aggravated assaults and maintain the overall safety and well-being of residents.
