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Violent Crime Trends in Forsyth, Missouri: A Decade of Change and Low Murder Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Forsyth, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable peak of 14 incidents in 2015 and a low of 2 incidents in 2013. The overall trend shows a slight decrease, with 7 incidents in 2010 compared to 6 in 2022, representing a 14.3% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 4,984 in 2010 to 6,260 in 2022, an increase of 25.6%.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only one recorded incident in 2016. This single occurrence represented 0.22% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.16 in 2016, dropping to zero in subsequent years. This suggests that homicide is an extremely rare event in the community, with no discernible trend due to its infrequency.
Rape incidents have been sporadic, with peaks of 2 cases in 2010 and 2011, representing 0.19% and 0.18% of state totals respectively. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2010 at 0.40, decreasing to 0.16 per 1,000 in 2022. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city has fluctuated, reaching 0.05% in 2022, indicating a relatively low incidence compared to state figures.
Robbery trends show minimal activity, with only two years reporting incidents: 2 cases in 2013 (0.04% of state total) and 1 case in 2015 and 2016 each (0.02% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.36 in 2013, decreasing to 0.16 in 2015 and 2016. Since 2017, no robberies have been reported, suggesting an improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 12 in 2015, representing 0.08% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2015 at 1.94, decreasing to 0.80 per 1,000 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.03% in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the number of aggravated assaults, as both have generally increased over time. However, the correlation is not strong enough to suggest a direct causal link. The racial composition of the city, predominantly white (92% in 2022), has remained relatively stable and does not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, violent crime rates in Forsyth are likely to remain relatively stable, potentially fluctuating between 5 to 7 incidents per year. Aggravated assault is expected to continue as the primary form of violent crime, while murder, rape, and robbery are likely to remain infrequent occurrences.
In summary, Forsyth has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate despite population growth. The most significant trend has been in aggravated assaults, which have shown some fluctuation but remain the predominant violent crime concern. The city's extremely low rates of murder, rape, and robbery contribute to its overall safety profile, suggesting that focused efforts on reducing aggravated assaults could further improve the city's violent crime statistics in the coming years.
