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Violent Crime Trends in Foristell, Missouri: A Study of Stability Amidst Rapid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Foristell, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 0 in 2011 and 2013 to a peak of 7 in 2016. Concurrently, the population grew significantly from 3,675 in 2010 to 6,844 in 2022, representing an 86.2% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period. This stability in the absence of murders, despite the population growth, indicates a positive trend in public safety. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city has consequently remained at 0% throughout this time.
Rape incidents in the city have been rare, with only one reported case in 2020. This translates to a rate of 0.16 per 1,000 people for that year. The percentage of state rapes attributable to the city peaked at 0.05% in 2020, the only year with a recorded incident. Given the low occurrence, it's challenging to establish a definitive trend, but the overall rarity of such incidents is noteworthy.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period – one in 2014 and another in 2018. These incidents corresponded to rates of 0.20 and 0.19 per 1,000 people, respectively. The percentage of state robberies attributable to the city reached 0.02% in both years. The infrequency of robberies, even as the population grew, suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of this particular crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, peaking at 7 in 2016, which represented a rate of 1.34 per 1,000 people. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributable to the city reached its highest at 0.04% that same year. Despite some fluctuations, there's been a general downward trend in recent years, with no reported cases in 2020 and 2022, indicating improvement in this area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the number of aggravated assaults, as both generally increased until 2016 before diverging. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently comprising about 93-95% of the total, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that the city will likely maintain its low violent crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). The absence of murders is expected to continue, while rape and robbery incidents are likely to remain rare occurrences. Aggravated assaults may fluctuate but are anticipated to stay below the peak levels observed in 2015-2016.
In summary, Foristell has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate despite significant population growth. The absence of murders, rarity of rapes and robberies, and the recent decline in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that has managed to maintain public safety in the face of rapid expansion. These trends, if sustained, suggest a positive outlook for the city's safety and quality of life in the coming years.
