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Violent Crime Trends in Florence, Kentucky: A Decade of Stability Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Florence, located in Kentucky, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside steady population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 63 to 63, remaining stable overall despite year-to-year variations. During this same period, the population grew from 37,593 to 42,827, representing a 13.9% increase.
Murder trends in the city have been relatively low and sporadic. There were no murders reported in most years, with only single incidents occurring in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021. Given the infrequency of these events, it's challenging to establish a clear trend. However, when murders did occur, they represented a small percentage of state totals, ranging from 0.34% to 1.45% of Kentucky's murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained extremely low, never exceeding 0.024 per 1,000 residents.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 18 in 2010 to 20 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.47 in 2022, despite population growth. The city's contribution to state rape totals has varied, peaking at 2.75% in 2022, up from 2.31% in 2010. This suggests that while the absolute number of rapes has remained relatively stable, the city's share of state totals has increased slightly.
Robbery trends show a decline over the examined period. The number of robberies decreased from 27 in 2010 to 17 in 2022, a 37% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 0.72 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state robbery totals increased from 0.8% in 2010 to 2.37% in 2022, indicating that while robberies decreased in Florence, they may have decreased more rapidly elsewhere in the state.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown an upward trend. The number increased from 18 in 2010 to 26 in 2022, a 44.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault totals also increased from 0.44% in 2010 to 1.58% in 2022, suggesting a faster rise in assaults compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population growth and the overall number of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. As the population density increased from 3,364 per square mile in 2010 to 3,833 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in certain types of violent crimes. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 86% in 2013 to 83% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Florence may see: - A continued low and sporadic occurrence of murders - A slight increase in rape incidents, potentially reaching 22-24 cases annually - A stabilization or slight decrease in robberies, possibly around 15-18 cases per year - A continued increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching 30-35 cases annually
In summary, Florence has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns against the backdrop of significant population growth. While some crime categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have increased. The city's contribution to state crime totals has generally increased across categories, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. These trends underscore the importance of community-based interventions and law enforcement efforts to address the changing dynamics of violent crime in this growing Kentucky city.
