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Violent Crime Trends in Florence, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Florence, located in Alabama, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 71 (excluding robbery data) to 233, representing a significant 228% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 42,361 to 44,265, a 4.5% increase.
Murder rates in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there was 1 murder, which remained consistent in 2011 but doubled to 2 in 2012. The highest number of murders recorded was 4 in 2018, representing 1.56% of the state's total murders that year. By 2022, murders decreased to 1, accounting for 0.27% of state murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.024 in 2010 to 0.023 in 2022, peaking at 0.093 in 2018. This indicates that while the absolute number of murders has varied, the rate relative to population has remained relatively stable over time.
Rape incidents have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 12 reported rapes, which increased to 31 by 2022, a 158% rise. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases also grew, from 1.76% in 2010 to 3.54% in 2022, indicating a faster increase in rape incidents compared to the state average.
Robbery data shows significant fluctuations. While no data was available for 2010, the number of robberies peaked at 56 in 2013, representing 1.57% of state robberies. By 2022, robberies had drastically decreased to 6, accounting for only 0.46% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from a high of 1.32 in 2013 to 0.14 in 2022, suggesting a substantial improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assaults have shown the most consistent upward trend among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 58 aggravated assaults, which increased to 195 by 2022, a 236% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 1.37 in 2010 to 4.41 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults also increased from 0.97% to 1.71% over this period, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,597 per square mile in 2010 to 1,669 in 2022, violent crime rates also generally trended upward. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 76% in 2013 to 72% in 2022) and the increase in violent crime rates, though this correlation should be interpreted cautiously without assuming causation.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Florence may see its total violent crimes increase to approximately 300-320 incidents annually. This projection assumes a continuation of current trends and does not account for potential interventions or unforeseen circumstances.
In summary, Florence has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, while seeing improvements in robbery rates. The murder rate has remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth. These trends, occurring alongside modest population growth and demographic shifts, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing the city's crime landscape. The projected increase in violent crimes over the next five years underscores the importance of targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address these challenges.
