Robbery trends in Firebaugh have remained relatively low but fluctuating. In 2010, there were 2 reported robberies (0.25 per 1,000 people), which peaked at 5 cases in both 2012 and 2022 (0.62 and 0.60 per 1,000 people, respectively). The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has generally remained low, ranging from 0% to 0.01% throughout the period. This indicates that while robbery remains a concern, it has not significantly escalated relative to the population growth.

Aggravated assault has shown the most variability among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 19 cases (2.41 per 1,000 people), which peaked at 61 cases in 2013 (7.54 per 1,000 people). By 2022, this number had decreased to 21 cases (2.52 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics reached a high of 0.09% in 2013 but decreased to 0.02% by 2022. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault has been a significant concern, recent years have seen a return to lower levels.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 90% in 2013 to 97% in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crime incidents, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that the growing Hispanic community may be associated with improved community cohesion and lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the recent stabilization in crime rates. Murders are likely to remain at or near zero, while rape and robbery incidents may fluctuate but remain below 5 cases per year. Aggravated assaults are projected to stabilize around 20-25 cases annually, assuming current trends and community dynamics persist.

In summary, Firebaugh has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime despite population growth. The consistent absence of murders, recent reductions in rape and aggravated assault cases, and the stable low rates of robbery indicate positive trends in public safety. The correlation between the growing Hispanic population and declining violent crime rates suggests that community factors may play a significant role in maintaining safety. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the well-being of its residents.