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Violent Crime Trends in Ferndale, California: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ferndale, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 1 incident in 2010 to 4 incidents in 2022, representing a 300% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 3,427 in 2010 to 3,840 in 2022, a 12.1% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This stable trend indicates that the city has managed to maintain a murder-free environment despite population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for murder have both remained at 0%, suggesting that the city has effectively prevented this most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. The first recorded rape incident was in 2016, followed by another in 2017. In 2020, the number increased to 2 incidents. However, by 2022, the number dropped back to zero. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.59 and fell to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state rape crimes reached its highest at 0.02% in 2020. These fluctuations suggest that while rape is not a persistent problem, there have been isolated incidents that warrant attention.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only one robbery incident was recorded in 2016, with no other occurrences in the observed period. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.29 robberies per 1,000 people in 2016. The percentage of state robbery crimes was negligible, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied from year to year, with a low of 1 in 2010 and 2015, and highs of 5 in 2016 and 2018. In 2022, there were 4 aggravated assault incidents. The rate per 1,000 people for aggravated assault ranged from 0.29 in 2010 to 1.52 in 2016. The percentage of state aggravated assault crimes peaked at 0.01% in 2011, 2013, and 2016. These figures suggest that while aggravated assault occurs more frequently than other violent crimes, its prevalence remains relatively low.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population growth and the number of violent crimes. As the population increased from 3,427 in 2010 to 3,840 in 2022, the total violent crimes also generally increased, though not consistently. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between median rent increases and violent crime occurrences. The median rent rose from $941 in 2013 to $1,276 in 2022, coinciding with some fluctuations in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is estimated that the total number of violent crimes may stabilize around 4-6 incidents annually, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent. The rate per 1,000 people is expected to remain below 2.0, which is relatively low compared to national averages.
In summary, Ferndale has experienced a moderate increase in violent crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by fluctuations in aggravated assault incidents. The absence of murders and the low occurrence of rapes and robberies suggest that the city maintains a relatively safe environment despite population growth. However, the slight upward trend in overall violent crimes warrants continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.
