Robbery cases in Farrell decreased from 8 in 2017 to 3 in 2018, a substantial 62.5% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.72 to 0.65. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state robberies declined less dramatically, from 0.09% to 0.04%, suggesting that while improvements were made locally, they were somewhat in line with state-wide trends.

Aggravated assault cases showed a slight decrease from 44 in 2017 to 41 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people decreased marginally from 9.45 to 8.89. The city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, changing from 0.34% to 0.31%. This indicates that aggravated assault remains a persistent issue in the city, with changes broadly aligning with state-wide patterns.

A strong correlation exists between Farrell's violent crime trends and its racial demographics. As the Black population percentage increased from 48% in 2017 to 49% in 2020, there was a corresponding increase in certain violent crimes, particularly rape. Additionally, the decline in the White population from 40% in 2017 to 39% in 2022 coincided with overall reductions in robbery and aggravated assault rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), a continued decline in overall violent crime rates is anticipated, with projections suggesting a potential 15-20% reduction. This forecast is based on the observed trends of decreasing population density and shifts in racial demographics.

In summary, Farrell has shown a complex picture of violent crime trends. While overall violent crime has decreased, specific categories like rape have seen concerning increases. The city's contribution to state-wide crime remains disproportionately high in some areas, suggesting a need for targeted interventions. The correlation between demographic shifts and crime rates underscores the importance of community-based approaches to crime prevention and social equity initiatives.