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Violent Crime Trends in Farmington, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Increases
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Farmington, Missouri, a city of approximately 21,531 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. This analysis examines the trends in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, during which time the city's population grew by about 9.3% from 19,705 to 21,531. The total number of violent crimes increased from 20 in 2010 to 56 in 2022, representing a 180% increase, although there were significant variations within this period.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only three reported cases over the 13-year period (one each in 2010, 2017, and 2019). This translates to an average of approximately 0.05 murders per 1,000 people per year. The percentage of state murders attributable to Farmington has fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.3% in 2010 and 0.22% in 2019, with several years reporting no murders. Given the small numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but the data suggests that murder remains an infrequent occurrence in the city.
Rape incidents have shown more variability, ranging from a low of 1 case in 2016 to a high of 12 cases in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.10 in 2010 to 0.51 in 2022, with a peak of 0.55 in 2021. The city's contribution to state rape cases has also fluctuated, from 0.05% in 2016 to 0.57% in 2021. The trend shows an overall increase in rape cases, particularly in recent years, which may indicate a need for increased prevention efforts and support services.
Robbery incidents have remained relatively stable, ranging from 1 to 6 cases per year. The rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated between 0.05 and 0.28, with 2022 showing 0.23 robberies per 1,000 residents. The city's percentage of state robberies has generally remained low, peaking at 0.16% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies occur, they are not a dominant form of violent crime in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Farmington. The number of cases rose from 16 in 2010 to a peak of 100 in 2015, before decreasing to 40 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.81 in 2010 to 5.02 in 2015, then declined to 1.86 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.63% in 2015 and stood at 0.23% in 2022. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, there has been some improvement in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,075 per square mile in 2010 to 2,267 in 2022, violent crime rates generally trended upward, although not consistently. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population making up about 89% of residents in 2022, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's estimated that by 2029, Farmington may see a slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The model suggests that aggravated assaults could rise to approximately 45-50 cases per year, while rape incidents might stabilize around 10-12 cases annually. Robberies are predicted to remain relatively stable at 4-6 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain low, with potentially 0-1 cases per year.
In summary, Farmington has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. While the overall trend shows an increase in violent crimes, recent years have seen some stabilization. The city's growth and increasing population density appear to have some correlation with crime rates, suggesting a need for continued focus on community policing and crime prevention strategies as the city continues to develop.
