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Violent Crime Trends in Falkville: A Small Alabama Town's Struggle with Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Falkville, Alabama, a small town that has experienced significant population growth, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes in Falkville fluctuated, starting at 3 in 2010, peaking at 16 in 2016, and settling at 10 in 2018. This represents a 233% increase over the period. During the same timeframe, the population grew from 3,518 in 2010 to 4,744 in 2018, a 34.8% increase.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in Falkville maintained a consistent record of zero incidents from 2010 to 2018. This stability is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The rate per 1,000 people remained at 0 throughout this period, and the percentage of state crime for this category was consistently 0%.
Rape incidents in the city showed some fluctuation. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, representing 0.15% of the state's total. The rate then dropped to 0 in 2012 and 2015, before rising to 2 cases in 2016 (0.18% of the state total), and then decreasing to 1 case in 2018 (0.09% of the state total). The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2018, showing a slight decrease despite population growth.
Robbery trends in Falkville were relatively low. There were no reported robberies in 2010, followed by 1 case in 2012 and 2015 (0.02% and 0.03% of the state total, respectively). In 2016 and 2018, the number returned to 0. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.25 in 2012 and 2015, before dropping to 0 in the following years.
Aggravated assault saw the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. Starting with 2 cases in 2010 (0.03% of the state total), it rose to 14 cases in 2016 (0.13% of the state total), before settling at 9 cases in 2018 (0.08% of the state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.57 in 2010 to 1.90 in 2018, indicating a substantial rise in relation to population growth.
A notable correlation exists between the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, and the growing population density. As the population density increased from 930 per square mile in 2010 to 1,255 per square mile in 2018, the number of violent crimes, especially aggravated assaults, also rose. This suggests that the growing concentration of people in the area may have contributed to an increase in violent encounters.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2024, Falkville may see a slight increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 12-15 per year, with aggravated assaults possibly accounting for 10-12 of these incidents. However, murder rates are expected to remain at or near zero, while rape and robbery incidents may continue to fluctuate between 0-2 cases annually.
In summary, Falkville has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, primarily driven by aggravated assaults, correlating with its population growth and increased density. While serious crimes like murder remain rare, the rise in assaults suggests a need for focused community safety initiatives. The town's evolving demographics and urban density will likely continue to shape its crime landscape in the coming years.
