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Violent Crime Trends in Falfurrias: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Falfurrias, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes increased from 11 in 2010 to 12 in 2022, representing a 9.09% increase. During this same period, the population showed a slight increase from 4,154 in 2010 to 4,184 in 2022, a growth of 0.72%.
Examining murder trends, the city saw sporadic occurrences with no clear pattern. There were single murder cases reported in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, but no murders from 2015 to 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.24 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributed to Falfurrias fluctuated between 0.1% and 0.12% from 2010 to 2014, dropping to 0% thereafter. This suggests an improvement in the city's murder rate relative to both its population and the state's overall figures.
Rape incidents in Falfurrias showed an inconsistent pattern. There were no reported cases in most years, with exceptions in 2012 (2 cases) and 2014 (4 cases). The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.85 in 2014 but was 0.24 in 2022. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city remained very low, reaching a maximum of 0.05% in 2014. This indicates that while rape is not a persistent problem, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics due to its small population.
Robbery trends in the city were similarly sporadic. The highest number of robberies (3) occurred in 2010 and 2014. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, peaking at 0.72 in 2010 and ending at 0.24 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery figures remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%. This suggests that while robberies occur occasionally, they are not a major concern relative to state-wide incidents.
Aggravated assault emerged as the most prevalent violent crime in Falfurrias. The number of cases increased from 7 in 2010 to 10 in 2022, with a peak of 31 cases in 2020. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.68 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2022, with a significant spike to 7.07 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in most subsequent years, peaking at 0.04% in 2020. This trend indicates that aggravated assault is becoming a more pressing issue for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 90% in 2013 to 95% in 2017, violent crimes also showed an upward trend. However, this correlation weakened in later years as the Hispanic population percentage stabilized around 93% while crime rates continued to fluctuate.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Falfurrias may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes. The model suggests aggravated assaults could reach around 15-18 cases annually, while other violent crimes may remain at similar levels to recent years.
In summary, Falfurrias has experienced variable violent crime trends over the past decade. While murders have decreased and rapes and robberies remain infrequent, aggravated assaults have shown a concerning upward trend. The city's crime rates, particularly for aggravated assaults, warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure public safety and maintain quality of life for residents.
