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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fairview, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,637 in 2022, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. In 2022, the town reported a total of 3 violent crimes, all of which were classified as aggravated assaults. This analysis will examine the violent crime trends in the city, considering its population dynamics and other relevant factors.
The total number of violent crimes in the city has remained consistently low, with only aggravated assaults reported in 2022. The population has shown some fluctuation over the years, increasing from 1,559 in 2010 to 1,637 in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 5% over this period.
Regarding murder trends, the data shows that there were no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter in 2022. This absence of murders has been consistent, with the percentage of state crime for this category remaining at 0% throughout the observed period. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at zero, indicating a very safe environment in terms of homicides.
Similarly, the data reveals no reported cases of rape in 2022, with the percentage of state crime for rape also remaining at 0%. This suggests that sexual violence, as measured by reported rapes, is not a significant issue in the city. The rate of rape per 1,000 people has consistently been zero, reflecting positively on the safety of the community in this regard.
Robbery trends follow the same pattern, with no reported cases in 2022 and a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero throughout the observed period, indicating a very low risk of property crimes involving force or threat of force against persons.
Aggravated assault is the only category of violent crime reported in the city for 2022, with 3 cases recorded. This translates to a rate of approximately 1.83 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault was 0.13% in 2022, indicating that while present, these incidents make up a very small fraction of the state's total aggravated assaults. Given the small population, even a few incidents can significantly affect the rate per 1,000 people, but the overall number remains low.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, the most notable relationship is with population density. The city's population density increased from 1,945 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,043 in 2022. This modest increase in density coincides with the presence of aggravated assaults, suggesting a potential link between population concentration and the occurrence of violent incidents, albeit at a very low level.
Racial distribution shows minimal change over the years, with the white population consistently representing over 90% of residents. In 2022, the white population accounted for 92% of the total, with other racial groups each representing 3% or less. Given the low crime numbers and the stable racial composition, no significant correlation can be drawn between race distribution and violent crime trends in this case.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the very low number of incidents. However, based on the current data, it's reasonable to project that the city will likely continue to experience very low levels of violent crime, with aggravated assaults potentially remaining the primary concern. The rate might fluctuate between 0 and 3 cases per year, given the small population size where individual incidents can have a noticeable impact on statistics.
In summary, Fairview demonstrates remarkably low violent crime rates across all categories. The presence of only aggravated assaults in the violent crime data, coupled with the absence of murders, rapes, and robberies, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. The slight increase in population density over the years may warrant continued attention to prevent potential increases in aggravated assaults, but overall, the town's violent crime profile remains notably low in the context of broader urban crime trends.