Robbery trends in the city have shown a general decline over the years. From a high of 15 robberies in 2016, the number decreased to just 2 in 2022, representing an 86.67% reduction. When adjusted for population, the robbery rate fell from 2.83 per 1,000 people in 2016 to 0.41 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has also diminished, from 0.31% in 2016 to 0.04% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is a positive development for the city's overall safety profile.

Aggravated assaults have shown more variability but with a recent upward trend. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 8 in 2019 to 23 in 2022, a 187.5% rise. The rate per 1,000 people correspondingly increased from 1.58 in 2019 to 4.71 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults doubled from 0.05% in 2019 to 0.1% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests a need for focused intervention in this area of violent crime.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's declining population density and changes in violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,986 per square mile in 2010 to 1,768 in 2022, overall violent crime rates showed volatility but with recent increases. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between rising median rent (from $388 in 2013 to $693 in 2022) and fluctuations in crime rates, particularly the increase in aggravated assaults.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate that if current trends continue, the city may see a stabilization or slight increase in overall violent crimes. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the most prevalent form of violent crime, potentially reaching around 25-30 incidents annually. Murders may continue to occur sporadically, likely not exceeding 2-3 per year. Robberies are expected to remain low, possibly stabilizing at 2-5 incidents annually. The rape trend is difficult to predict due to inconsistent data, but efforts to improve reporting and prevention may lead to more accurate figures in the coming years.

In summary, Fairmont has experienced complex changes in its violent crime landscape against a backdrop of demographic shifts. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have seen concerning increases. The city's declining population coupled with rising violent crime rates in certain categories underscores the need for targeted public safety strategies. As Fairmont moves forward, addressing the root causes of aggravated assaults and maintaining the positive trends in other crime categories will be crucial for improving overall public safety and quality of life for its residents.